By Zane, General Manager of Bukidnon Farms ⛰
April 29, 2024 // Week 4, Season 14
Figure 0: The Question by hiddenhunting
- Parents is good starting point
- If you have access to the breeding report, that can also be a good initial clue
- Running 4, then 5, then 6 etc. would probably be a poor use of funds. Better to jump around a little. E.g. 4 then 8 then 12 is a basic pattern for testing. I try to use 7 or 9 in the first race, then jump higher or lower based on what I observe
- You're at a disadvantage at this point in the season (week 3) because most Maiden races are done with and the 2yo doesn’t have racing data for you to make decisions off of
- Edit: It turns out hiddenhunting was asking on behalf of a 1yo that he has that will be racing in one week. He will get a fresh start! Also note that he is aiming to gain an information advantage without spending any money—Smart!
- Running grade-restricted maidens is the default choice for the first couple races to find optimum distance. Handicaps are best as filler races for lower grade horses (below A+) and can be an affordable option at any point in season and into age 3. If your horse is higher graded, they aren't so useful because the horse will be loaded with weight and will basically auto-lose
- Finding FF efficiently is too complicated for me to condense into a plain Discord message, I will do my best via a case study of a horse I own
Figure 1: I Make Stuff Up. Solid LTS Sprinter.
Figure 2: I Make Stuff Up’s First Nine Races
See figure 1 for my S- horse I Make Stuff Up that I claimed for 50k right at the start of his 3yo season. He is 4.75yo now and is a definite sprinter that’s been a lot of fun to run
Let’s take a look at how his original owner figured it out
- When you run a race, one of the most useful bits of information you get is the FF as well as your "Early Mid Late" positioning, e.g.
64FF 2 5 5 = 64FF overall, 2nd place in first third of the race, 5th place in second third, and 5th place at end of race. This info is in the rectangle on the right side